The Financial Times has reported that the International Energy Agency's study of the 400 largest oil fields will reveal that "Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent." (Of course, this conclusion comes without ever mentioning those wacko peak-oil theorists. )
The 9.1% is a biggie. But the "without extra investment" is also a biggie. In the current financial climate, virtually NOBODY is getting loans. Not even to produce food or oil, the basic necessities of life in our economy.
If this is true.... if we have peaked and are beginning to decline .... if, in a year or 2 years, we are producing 9% less than this year.... we're in for it. I don't think that a year or two would be enough time for people to adjust to the new lower-energy reality, especially after the body-blows from the current financial crisis. Falling wages. Lost jobs. Forgotten retirement plans.
But we can hope, and this news can help inspire us to redouble our own efforts while inviting others to start theirs.
Excuse me while I go make my latest To Do list. It's going to be a long one.