Thursday, May 6, 2010

Signs, signs everywhere signs

Back in February, John Michael Greer, he of the Long Descent historical viewpoint, predicted an imminent collapse in the making.

At that point, I suggested that everyone who is transitioning to a more sustainable and/or resilient way of life might want to pick up the pace a bit by "pretending" that they needed to prepare for that transition in the next six months or so. Order your seeds and prepare the garden, stock up your woodpile, store a few months of food, learn important skills, look after your health, get your house prepared, meet your neighbors, etc.

Since February, signs have been everywhere - for those who choose to see. Here's just a small, selected example of the many alarm bells that have been clanging in the past few months:

In March, Oxford University reported that global oil reserves were over-estimated by one-third (!!!), and predicted an oil peak by 2014-1015. One of the authors commented "The belief that alternative fuels such as biofuels could mitigate oil supply shortages and eventually replace fossil fuels is a pie in the sky. Instead of relying on those silver bullet solutions, we have to make better use of the remaining resources by improving efficiency."

Also in March, Le Monde published an article reporting that the US Department of Energy "considers a decline of world oil production as of 2011." Chris Nelder found a chart from the EIA that shows that they have no idea how supply could increase after 2012, and in five years, the shortfall between supply and demand would equal Saudi Arabia's current production.

And perhaps most alarming to many Americans, the U.S. Joint Forces of Command issued a report that warned "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,” with serious economic and political repercussions.

Finally, at the end of April, the Deepwater Horizon platform burned and toppled, and the deepwater well is currently spewing 210,000 gallons of oil per day into the Gulf of Mexico, signaling that perhaps, trying to drill our way out of peak oil is a fool's strategy. Perhaps, it's not so clever to try to delay the inevitable so we can party for just a few... more.... years.

Come on, what more do you need than a thousand-foot burning bush, whoops, I mean rig? Especially one that can be seen from miles away.... with an oil slick that can be seen from space? What's it going to take? People, do you really need GOD'S HANDWRITING IN THE SKY????


Aimee said...

We are making and storing homebrew biodiesel as fast as we can. We can the car and the tractor on it and heat the house too.

daharja said...

I'm seeing the signs everywhere too.

We'll be okay - we're on 3 acres in a food production, low population density area of NZ. But we're still getting a wood burner in over the coming months, probably buying one at the end of winter when the sales are on.

Things will get tight all right. I think our community will pull through, but am very glad I don't live in, or near, a big city.

Jenna Ann said...

The concept of Peak Oil was originally from Dr. M. King Hubbert. He was practically laughed out of the field at the time. He was SO right!

Still not convinced? Try Matt Savinar's website Mr. Savinar documents every one of his findings. True to the lawyer's style, he builds his case step by painful step.

Yes, my family is working hard at preparation. We have much of our seed but we still need more. We are gardening as much as possible and adding more each payday. Every spare penny we have is going into these efforts.

Steve in Hungary said...

Hi Christine,

I watch the unfolding events around Deepwater Horizon from my little bastion in Eastern Europe. We are of course a landlocked country.

I have followed this story from the very first reports of "oil rig on fire" with increasing alarm and despondency right up to the situation we have now. So far it just gets worse. It has already got past the protective (?) booms in GOM. What will happen if it gets out onto the gulf stream?

This is one of the worst nightmare enviro-catastrophies that I could ever imagine happening.